At the beginning of the new season of “Path of Exile 2” (POE 2), whether or not to buy poe 2 flasks (buy potions) is a matter of supply and demand price volatility against the return on investment. Throughout the first week of the season, top-end potions (e.g., “Azri’s Promise” or “Petrochemical potions”) had a scarcity premium rate between 150%-300%. For example, the average price of “Diamond Flask Potions” surged from the typical 5 Chaos Orb to 15 Chaos. Meanwhile, the players only got 8 to 12 Chaos per hour (on T1 map). One’s actual test is that when 50 Chaos is utilized in purchasing a set of 5 bottles of T1 fix poaches, the rate of map-clearing increases by 35% (map-clearing time decreases from 10 minutes to 6.5 minutes), but 200 Chaos needs to be cleared within 48 hours for reclaiming the investment. The Risk-Reward Ratio is 1:1.4. Below 1:2.6 for mid-to-late stage investment.
Cost-effectiveness of self-made potion could be enhanced. Production of the “Defreezing + Debleeding + Moving Speed” three-link potion through the Crafting Bench took 7 Glassblower’s Bauble (Glassblower beads, unit price 1 Chaos) and 12 crafting attempts (0.5 Chaos per attempt). The sum is approximately 13.5 Chaos, 46% cheaper than direct purchase (market price 25 Chaos). But the time cost is very expensive – 45 minutes to generate a set, versus 20 minutes to earn the same quantity of Chaos through map grinding (assuming an earnings rate of 30 Chaos per hour).
Low-cost Windows can be attacked by market fluctuation tactics. Between the 3rd and the 5th day of the season, prices of potions began falling due to the supply glut (studio mass production). For example, the 30% speed movement bonus type of “Quicksilver Flask” fell from 10 Chaos on the first day to 4 Chaos (a fall of 60%). If the buyout was delayed to today, the price for the 5-bottle set would be reduced from 125 Chaos to 60 Chaos. Combined with the other benefit of increased map-grinding efficiency (ascending an additional 5 Chaos per hour), the payoff time for the investment will decrease from 24 hours to 12 hours. Aside from that, the more rare potions (e.g. “sulfur potions”) are perhaps overvalued because of a shortage of demand – standard price in the second week of the season is 2 Chaos (cost price 3 Chaos), with a 15% arbitrage margin.
Substitutional alternatives reduce reliance. For instance, the layering of “Potion Recharge Acquisition +50%” and “Potion Effect Extension 40%” in the talent tree is able to increase the coverage rate of base potions (no affixes) from 55% to 85%, almost equivalent to that of T1 affixes potions with a 90% coverage rate but at 80% less cost to acquire. One player of the Summoning Flow experimented and determined that with just whiteboard potions, plus talents, clearing the T16 map took only 12% longer than with all T1 potions, and saved 100 Chaos could be spent buying key gear (e.g. a helmet with “Summoning damage +90%”).
Risk control is of the utmost significance. The costly potions at the start of the season may plummeet due to version updates (e.g., suffix weakening patch) – in the December 2023 season, the price of “Azri’s Promise” dropped from 80 Chaos to 25 Chaos (69% decrease) due to the crippling of the BD related to critical hits, leaving early investors with over 200 Chaos loss. Those of high flexibility (i.e., “Mercury” and “Diamond”), whose price fluctuation standard deviation (σ) is ±18%, which is lower than ±35% of professional-bound potions, are recommended for use.
Statistics show that the best plan of buy poe 2 flasks is: Purchase medium and affordable (5-10 Chaos) T1 suffix elixirs on days 3 to 5 of the new league, and complement with self-brewed methods to meet unpopular demands. The overall cost is reduced by 40%, and the risk of early premium is avoided. If hourly Chaos income is over 15 (on T3+ maps), you must prioritize investment in potion to enhance Farm efficiency. When revenue is below 10, the buyout must be left pending and rely on talents and whiteboard potions to transition to a stable price phase.